Perhaps you have encountered "The Prisoner's Dilemma." This mainstay of Game Theory offers individuals the opportunity to maximize the chances of personal reward through cooperation in a non-zero-sum outcome. Two prisoners, the scenario goes, are picked up and charged with the same offense. Each is offered the opportunity to cooperate and plead to a lessor sentence, or betray the other and possibly get off Scott free or possibly be accused of conspiracy and get the maximum sentence. It you look at it rationally, players have a 25% chance of getting off, a 25% chance of getting the book thrown at them, and a 50% chance of a minor sentence.
In the long term, the rational choice is to cooperate. In the short term, the rational choice is to take care of oneself. If offered this chance a single time, individuals tend to bet the house on getting off and screwing the other guy. This is not unlike Garret Hardin's Tragedy of the Commons, which posits that communal land invariably gets exploited by individuals for personal gain at the expense of the rest. This leads to degradation of the shared resource on which everyone depends. In The Prisoner's Dilemma, the odds of getting doubly screwed are actually greater than 25% in the short term. If offered this option multiple times, at some point players should realize that it is to their mutual advantage to cooperate. Choices are made in isolation, though, and so the degree to which one party trusts the other to do the logical thing becomes a factor. If you have multiple opportunities to choose, with the last choice including a possible massive payout but also a possible massive penalty, players tend to forget the odds and the advantages of cooperation and go for it all, and with it, ensure their mutual destruction.
I have seen this played out where there were four teams and each had a representative who met with the others to decide which course of action to take. The logical choice was to go for the minor benefit over the big payout with its potential big loss. The problem was that one team that consistently and rationally chose to cooperate was blown away when the other three did not choose to follow suit. In the end, all lost, but the lone cooperator lost sooner.
Let's try this in a hypothetical Global Climate Change scenario. Suppose we as individuals and governments are given these options. We can choose to maintain our own consumption and pollution patterns or we can make adjustments to the way we live. If you choose to maintain the status quo and I decide to make adjustments then you benefit, I don't, and our children may be worse off. If you choose to make lifestyle changes and I don't, the same thing happens in reverse. If we both choose to make adjustments, we experience minor impacts and our children may not experience a worse situation. If we both decide to do nothing, it gets worse for all of us and for the next generation.
If you buy this premise, then what outcome would you expect? Those who believe that human nature is inherently selfish rather than collective will likely point out that there is little reason to trust others to do the right thing, and indeed there is a 25% chance that we will be worse off for making the choice to make changes while others do not (but if everyone thinks this way, we all lose). Those of you who believe that climate change is a bunch of hooey can go along with the first group. Those of you who believe that we can be rational actors may point out that the logical choice is for everyone to make adjustment to mitigate the impacts of climate change and make the changes. Anyone want to guess how this would play out?
Of course, this is overly simplistic. People are unlikely to accept these as the only choices. Some don't believe anthropogenic climate change is real. Some live in areas which are unlikely to experience dramatic changes under current climate projections. Some want more proof that the option offered will truly bring about the predicted outcomes. The thing is, if we risk cooperation, do we necessarily wreck our economy, ruin our standard of living, and end up being screwed by those who choose not to do so? Or is the wiser course to make the changes now, in the belief that the consequence of being wrong about climate change is not as great as the consequence of being right and doing nothing?
Have at it in the comments.